Successful science without miracles

A Construction of H4 without Miracles

The No Miracles Argument without the Base Rate Fallacy

According to an argument by Colin Howson, the no-miracles argument is contingent on committing the base-rate fallacy and is therefore bound to fail. We demonstrate that Howson’s argument only applies to one of two versions of the no-miracles argument. The other, more considerate version is not adequately reconstructed in Howson’s approach and thus remains unaffected by his line of reasoning. We...

Neoclassical Miracles

We study the dynamic behavior of a Neoclassical growth model with finite lifetimes and imperfect altruism in which individuals can accumulate both physical and human capital. We use the model to better understand and explain the behavior of economic miracles. Our results suggest that standard Neoclassical forces can account for the performance of the miracle economies and can explain the protra...

The Miracles of Globalization

By the early 1980s, a number of distinguished economists had amassed compelling evidence that outward-oriented trade policies were far more likely than protectionism to lead to economic growth. The evidence was contained in two multi-country research projects-one at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), led by Ian Little and others, and the other at the National Bure...

The medical miracles delusion.

Humans are not ants, but we often trudge together along the same trail, neglecting to look around for alternatives. Mass delusions involve large groups holding false or exaggerated beliefs for sustained periods. Humanity has a long, sorry list of these shadow-the-leader epidemics of collective consciousness which appear obviously wrong only in hindsight. Some last for centuries: early alchemist...